Thursday, October 30, 2008

For Election Junkies

By now, most election junkies will have found the following website. But if not, let me direct you to, "Electoral Projections Done Right." With tons of maps, charts, and a listing of the many polls, presidential and otherwise, tracking and daily, etc., is a politico's dream site.

The emphasis on statistics and how to understand them -- a real boon if one is tired of getting the "spin" on the polls by the various cable networks and partisan websites -- is no surprise, as the site is the brainchild of Nate Silver, a baseball statistician who previously worked at Baseball Prospectus, according to the website Listics.

With the election only five days away, many will want to stay glued to their computer screen, reading high-level polling analyses, such as Anatomy of a Polling Disaster, or FiveThirtyEight's "On the Road" series.

At Nate Silver's excellent site, we learn that the chances of an electoral college tie this year is only 0.21%, while McCain has only a 5.48% chance of winning the popular vote. Did you know that if Obama loses both Ohio and Florida, he still has a 73.70% chance of winning the election. Don't believe me? Check it out.

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